Declan McCoy: Are the provincials on death row?

Before we delve into the possible demise of the provincials, I’ll make two points. Firstly, I hope they remain as important as they have been for the past 100 years, and secondly any observations or possible solutions I have are skewed by Kerry.

Let’s take a look

The GAA season has been condensed to an insanely squeezed schedule. County league, provincials and the All-Ireland series competitions have all been squeezed into a tight schedule. Simply put, too much is happening in too short a period. The first signs of the pressure cooker reaching breaking point are already upon us. The pre-season tournaments were pulled and then reinstated. I cannot for the life of me see how they are sustainable. Secondly, the brilliant Sigerson Cup competition is now little more than an afterthought. To think this is as far it goes is simply naive.

Traditionalists will say the provincials have been around for too long to be in bother. Now, to be clear, I’m not saying they will disappear, I’m saying that teams will not place as much emphasis on them.

Some of my best experiences as a child were of my father bringing me to Ulster Championship games to follow Armagh. When we ended the 17-year drought in 1999, that was our Everest. The All-Ireland semi-final was a bonus and the Ulster Championship meant everything. Now, this subsequently changed when Armagh went on to add six more in a short period of time, but the landscape is now completely different.

The FA cup began in 1872 and used to be the most prestigious of trophies. I used to tune in to football focus at 9am the day of the final to watch the build-up. Fast forward to today and the competition still exists. For many it still holds that magic but for the top teams it’s well down the pecking order. When Man Utd pulled out of the competition to play in the Club World Cup in 2000, the writing was on the wall. You now also have the financial trappings of the Champions League and the premier league, reducing the FA cup to a competition for blooding youngsters and to try things. If you win it, you win it, but it’s often an unwanted distraction for the big teams.

GAA is now in the realm of the professional era, where preparation and recovery has never been more scientific. Teams that front load their prep and go after a provincial will pay a price for this.

Where’s the evidence?

This year’s All-Ireland quarter-finals contained one team from the eight that won their province, that being Kerry.

The semi-finals, the business end, contained one team from four that won their province, again Kerry.

Armagh and Tyrone are a case in point. Let’s have a look at their numbers.

Armagh beat Tyrone in the preliminary round before going on to win Ulster. In all, they played seven games and were knocked out in round two of the series, travelling to Killarney six days after Louth beat them. Tyrone, after unluckily losing that game to Armagh, played two more games and made the All-Ireland quarter finals.

The above stats would suggest that if you want to be competing for an All-Ireland you must curtail your provincial championship ambitions, except for, yes, you’ve guessed it, Kerry. They do get a relatively easy run at their province as it’s seeded, and they start in the semi-final making the comparison a bit like looking at apples and oranges.

I believe the provinces will mirror the FA Cup. They will exist but the ‘big boys’ won’t value them. Some teams will still see it as the holy grail and there definitely is room for this. Westmeath and Roscommon had wonderful days this year winning their respective provinces. Louth winning it two years ago was massive, and my own Armagh finally got the monkey off their back winning it this year.

We must remember that Mayo was laughed at six weeks ago for getting hammered by Roscommon. When you look at them now, it can’t be a coincidence that they are at their best at the business end – the province was a building process not the holy grail.

Two things will happen

One: Things will remain the same and the value attributed to a provincial championship will rapidly decline.

Two: The powers that be will intervene and heavily incentivise a provincial winner. This could be going straight to round two or guaranteeing that the first two games in the series are home draws. This, however, is skewed by a certain team that have a young Clifford lad playing for them.

Without intervention they will survive but don’t be surprised to see them become the new McKenna Cup.