GERARD O’KANE: The shifting sands of another dramatic league finale

WITH six rounds of NFL action played and one to go this weekend, only one of the 32 teams has secured a place in a league final – Down. At the other end of the table, just three teams – Monaghan, Offaly and Fermanagh – have already been relegated.

That leaves 28 teams still in the mix, and remarkably, 26 of those still have something to play for heading into the final round. That’s an incredible statistic. It guarantees there will be no dead-rubber games this Sunday: we’re set for a genuine ‘Super Sunday’ of football.

TG4 have lined up a strong slate of games online, giving supporters plenty of choice, while Twitter/X and apps like Score Beo will be getting plenty of attention throughout the day.

There isn’t one division that clearly stands out in terms of jeopardy – it’s spread right across the board. From a Derry perspective, the picture has shifted dramatically over the weekend. Sitting top at 3pm on Saturday, they dropped to fourth by Sunday afternoon, which shows just how tight things are.

In fairness, I didn’t expect Derry to lose at the weekend. Based on their recent form, they were arguably the standout team across all divisions. Louth were also in good shape after convincing wins over Tyrone and Cavan, but Derry’s performance against Cork two weeks earlier looked like a real statement and had them in pole position for promotion.

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As it stands now, promotion is out of their hands. They’ll need a slip-up from either Cork or Meath. Whisper it quietly, but as a Derry man, I’ll be supporting Tyrone this Sunday.

If Derry do their job and beat Cavan but still fall short, there are positives to take. Reaching 10 points with a strong scoring difference would normally be enough for promotion.

Add in the emergence of players like Ruairi Forbes and Shea McGuckin, along with consistent game time for Gareth McKinless, Conor McCluskey and Lachlan Murray, and there’s plenty to build on.

A league final would have been nice, but it won’t define their season. The focus will quickly shift to the Ulster Championship and the opener against Antrim – that’s the real target.

Division One always has its own dynamic. For most teams, survival is the priority – avoiding the bottom two is the main goal. Beyond that, there often isn’t a huge push to reach the final. With such a condensed season, some squads may even prefer the break rather than extending their campaign.

Personally, I find that a bit surprising. Big games bring exposure and experience. Having played in three Division One finals and one Division Two final myself, I know how valuable those occasions are. When we were in contention, we pushed hard to get there.

Times have changed in the GAA calendar, but looking back 12-plus years later, those experiences still stand out. As things stand, a Kerry v Donegal final looks the most likely, a repeat of last year’s All-Ireland final. Donegal might relish another shot at Kerry, but there’s also the argument that they won’t want to reveal too much tactically this early in the season.

At the bottom end, the battle to avoid joining Monaghan in relegation will be fascinating. It’s been a difficult campaign for Monaghan. Missing the Scotstown contingent early on meant they were always playing catch-up, and as the league progressed, other teams seemed to gain momentum. Their focus will now turn fully to the championship and a big clash with neighbours Cavan in a few weeks.

Armagh’s win over Dublin last weekend was huge in keeping their hopes alive. Facing Kerry at the Athletic Grounds is a daunting task given Kerry’s form, but Armagh will take confidence from drawing level with Dublin and holding the head-to-head advantage.

It really could go either way. If Dublin can take something from a Galway side who are not safe themselves, there’ll be plenty of eyes on score updates in Armagh to see how things are unfolding.

All in all, it’s incredibly difficult to predict how things will finish – and in that sense, the biggest winners this weekend might just be the bookies.