CONFIDENCE and momentum are massive forces in sport. Because they’re classed as intangibles, they can be difficult to measure. But if you look at Derry and their fortunes over the past 18 months, you’d find a compelling case study.

After nearly two years without a competitive win, Derry have now recorded back-to-back victories in the 15 days between their fixtures against Tyrone and Kildare – both achieved in challenging circumstances.

It’s all “ifs, buts and maybes” but had Derry not beaten Tyrone, it’s hard to say whether they would have overcome Kildare in the manner they did. Reduced to 12 men at one stage (albeit Kildare had 14) and trailing by four points at half time while facing into the breeze, they showed remarkable resilience to dominate the second half and win by three.

While Kildare are still finding their feet at this level after time away – and with a squad loaded with u-23 players – the game will serve as a confidence boost for both sides, albeit for different reasons.

Derry appear to have rediscovered the spark that was missing for a period. Personnel has certainly helped, having key players back fit, injury-free and in form makes a difference, but it’s the blend of physical capability and intangible belief that stands out most at present. After a shaky start against Meath, a victory over Offaly this weekend would put Derry firmly in the driving seat for promotion.

That said, it remains a week-by-week proposition. Much can change in the next fortnight. Cork host Meath in this week’s top-of-the-table clash before travelling to Derry the following round.

The table will look far clearer in 14 days’ time, once those fixtures are settled and teams know exactly where they stand heading into the brief break before the final two rounds.

Division One tells a similar story. With teams surrendering leads of eight, nine and even 10 points, it’s difficult to assess who truly stands where in terms of league ambitions.

Donegal are undoubtedly the form side, playing an aggressive, high-energy brand of football. They’ve stated publicly that their league campaign is about unearthing new talent.

However, without a preliminary round in Ulster this year – unlike last season – there’s a delicate balance between developing players and exposing them to sustained top-level intensity. A run-out in Croke Park could prove invaluable for younger players’ confidence and growth.

At the bottom of Division One, the picture is far murkier. Even Nostradamus would struggle to predict relegation with certainty. Monaghan are odds-on favourites and, despite a decent showing against Dublin last week, it would take a dramatic turnaround to prevent the drop.

The second relegation spot is a genuine conundrum. Early assumptions pointed towards Roscommon, but two wins from their opening three games – one secured in particularly fortunate fashion – have them well placed to retain their status. Attention has instead shifted towards two teams perceived to be in transition: Armagh and Dublin.

Dublin, under new management and fielding a significantly reshaped team, are clearly in rebuilding mode as they attempt to reassert dominance in Leinster.

At this stage, consolidation may be the primary objective. Staying in Division One and reclaiming Leinster could well be viewed as a successful season,something few would have predicted five or six years ago.

Armagh, 18 months on from lifting the Sam Maguire, are also in transition. As many as 11 or 12 players have changed from that squad. However, their depth may prove decisive. Carrying a large panel of 40-plus players – many of whom have been patiently waiting for their opportunity – means replacements are not being fast-tracked from outside the inter-county environment.

When called upon, these players are largely conditioned, tactically aware and aligned with the team’s systems.

It may take a game or two to adjust to Division One intensity, but for that reason I’m tipping Armagh to survive.

By process of elimination, after three rounds, that leaves Dublin in real danger of the drop.

Their most realistic survival path may hinge on Roscommon failing to pick up any further points – and Dublin defeating them to swing the head-to-head in their favour on four points.

There’s an old saying in Derry: leagues are for playing in and championships are for winning. I’m not sure who coined it, and it’s probably used well beyond the county’s borders. But judging by last weekend’s intensity, you wouldn’t think anyone was treating the league lightly.

Roll on the next few weeks.