By Niall McCoy

SUNDAY’S Ulster opener between Armagh and Tyrone has something that the rivalry has rarely had over the last two decades – overwhelming favourites.

There have been times when the Red Hands have been hotly tipped, but rarely have the Orchard County been in such a position of pre-match strength.

Twelve months ago in the Ulster semi-final you say? Wrong, a number of bookies actually had Malachy O’Rourke’s side as slight favourites at Clones that day; a prediction not too far off the mark with Rory Grugan sealing the win for Armagh with a free-kick after the hooter.

A word of warning for Kieran McGeeney’s charges though. The last time a championship match between the two had such an expected outcome was possibly the 2014 Qualifier in Omagh.

Even in the 2017 All-Ireland quarter-final, when Tyrone humiliated Armagh with an 18-point win at Croke Park, there had been a sense of an upset with Armagh coming in with decent momentum behind them.

But in 2014 Armagh travelled with little hope and no real expectations.

A pre-match schmozzle seemed to galvanise them and they won 0-13 to 0-10 in a season that saw Paul Grimley’s side gather impetus from there and come agonisingly close to an All-Ireland semi-final spot.

Grimley’s men brought fire to Omagh that day; the charge being put to Tyrone prior to this clash is whether they have the tools to do likewise at the BOX-IT Athletic Grounds.

A lacklustre Division Two campaign, that saw the side enter the final day still facing the possibility of Tailteann Cup football, increased the apparent disconnect between players and fans. The attendances for the home matches against Cavan and Cork were pitiful.

There are so many question marks hanging over the side too.

Has Niall Morgan been usurped as number one? Loughmacrory’s Oisin O’Kane was given his chance in recent weeks but would O’Rourke be bold enough to omit one of his most experienced players for such a testing challenge?

Similar questions apply to Michael McKernan who, if the league is to be believed, is no longer a guaranteed starter for the Red Hands. A tigerish defender with the ability to break lines, his love of walking the disciplinary tightrope infuriates opponents – and maybe that’s exactly what the visitors need this weekend.

Who should be the starting attack? Ethan Jordan has burst onto the scene and has caught the eye with each appearance, but O’Rourke still decided to hold him back somewhat. He has the physicality to test a diminutive Armagh defence anyway.

Kieran McGeary is such a key cog for the side but having been on his travels, it may be too soon for a starting berth this weekend, although if Ruairi Canavan still isn’t entirely fit he could end up playing more minutes than expected.

There are options there anyway for the Tyrone management, even if the starting jigsaw still has a few wonky pieces that need to be squeezed in.

There’s no doubting that Armagh are more comfortable in their own skin right now.

McGeeney has selection dilemmas too, but he’s choosing from a position of strength following a league campaign that saw them pick up less Division One points than their performances deserved.

Aaron McKay, the hero of the 2024 All-Ireland final, returned for the final few league matches and the side’s form improved; although the Dromintee man still looked rusty after a long injury lay-off.

Gaelic Life understands Barry McCambridge played in a challenge match recently as he nears a return while Rory Grugan has also returned to full training recently. Andrew Murnin and Joe McElroy remain serious doubts.

The loss of Rian O’Neill, Niall Grimley, Stefan Campbell and Connaire Mackin has tested their squad, as well as a hefty injury list, but the response will have heartened McGeeney.

Greg McCabe, previously one McGeeney’s on-field generals but who has had to make do with some bench action over the last two seasons, has returned to the first 15 and has been arguably their player of the season so far.

Cian McConville has a hold on that potential accolade too as he makes the move from impact sub to starter.

Ross McQuillan is one of the best players in the province, and the Cullyhanna man is in serious form this season. He can no longer be ignored, and Tyrone must have a plan to try and hamper his impression on the game or they will be in serious bother.

Crucially, a definitive decision has been made early on what was expected to be a goalkeeping dilemma. Blaine Hughes had a shaky start to the league but the SOS wasn’t sent to Ethan Rafferty. Hughes was retained and has grown stronger with each passing round.

Then there’s Oisín Conaty, comfortably Armagh’s best player over the last two seasons after breaking onto the scene with a bang. Two All-Stars, a Young Player of the Year award and the front-runner for Player of the Year after 40 minutes of last season’s ultimately ill-fated All-Ireland quarter-final with Kerry. The Portadown man is a defender’s nightmare.

When you step back and look at this fixture and the position both teams are in, it’s hard not to be drawn towards one word – ambush. This is Tyrone after all, Armagh’s nemesis down through the years.

However, when all the evidence is spooled out and looked at more forensically, there really should only be one winner.

Armagh may have to prepare for war in the opening 20 minutes, but if they can ride that storm, over 70 minutes they should have four or five points to spare as their assault on a first Anglo Celt since 2008 begins.

Verdict: Armagh