By Niall McCoy

THE All-Ireland SFC group stages are set for a dramatic conclusion this weekend with six of Ulster’s seven participants still unsure of what their path to Sam will look like.

For All-Ireland champions Armagh, who face Galway at Kingspan Breffni, the pressure is off with a place in the quarter-finals already assured, while Down and Monaghan – who meet at the BOX-IT Athletic Grounds – also have the safety net of knowing their season will continue regardless of what happens.

For Donegal, Tyrone, Cavan and Derry though, they head into their final round of games knowing that their next game could be in 2026.

Here are the permutations facing Ulster’s septet.

Armagh

Win, lose or draw, Armagh will top Group Four.

Cavan

Win and Mayo win and they top Group 1, as they would if there was a draw in the other game. Win and Donegal win and they will finish second.

Lose and they’d need Donegal to beat Mayo to finish third. Draw and they’d need Donegal to beat Mayo to finish third.

If there is a draw in both games, Cavan will be eliminated, as they will be if they lose and Mayo lose.

Derry

Beat Dublin and Derry are guaranteed a spot in the preliminary quarter-final regardless of the result between Armagh and Galway. Lose and they’d need Armagh to beat Dublin by at least three points more than their losing margin. Draw and they’d need Armagh to beat Galway. If there is a draw in both games, Derry will be eliminated from Group 4.

Donegal

Beat Mayo and Donegal are guaranteed a spot in the preliminary quarter-final, and they will top the group if that happens and Tyrone fail to beat Cavan. If they win and Tyrone win, Donegal will finish second. Lose to Mayo and Donegal will require Cavan to lose to Tyrone to avoid elimination. A draw against Mayo would secure a preliminary quarter-final spot if there is a winner in the other match. A draw in both games and Donegal would top Group 1.

Down

Beat Monaghan or draw with them and Down will top Group 3. Lose and they will enter at the preliminary quarter-final stage.

Monaghan

Beat Down and Monaghan will top Group 3. Lose or draw and they will enter at the preliminary quarter-final stage.

Tyrone

Beat Cavan and Tyrone are guaranteed of at least a spot in the preliminary quarter-finals, and would go through as Group 1 winners should Donegal also beat Mayo.

Tyrone and Mayo wins would see them finish second. Lose and they’ll require Mayo to beat Donegal or they will be eliminated.

A draw, provided there is a winner in the other game, will be good enough for second spot.

Draws in both games will see Tyrone finish third.