THE word jeopardy has been thrown around a lot over the last two or three years, with ever-changing structures in the GAA, mostly aimed at the race for the Sam Maguire. Since the Super 8s came into being in 2018, there have been at least two further changes to the format. We are now nine seasons on from that 2018 campaign and entering another year of firsts, with a new back-door system for the top 16 teams, effectively creating a completely separate competition following the provincials.

All teams started back at the same point, the only difference being that some had a home draw due to their provincial run. The basic premise is simple: suffer two defeats before the quarter-final stage and you’re out. From the quarter-finals onwards, it’s business as usual.

With one round of the new system played over the last two weeks, eight teams are already on their last leg, with my own county, Derry, being one of them. This is where the jeopardy really kicks in, particularly for those eight teams. Last year, it took something like 24 group games to eliminate just four teams, which seemed a very long way around. By the time Derry were knocked out by Dublin, it was their third defeat of the campaign, having not won a game and only managing a draw with Galway. This time around, it is a bit more cut-throat.

At some stage, though, the GAA has to stick or twist and can’t keep changing the format every few years just to satisfy the masses. I understand the need for a bit of trial and error, but no system will ever be perfect or suit everyone. I’m not entirely sure what the current Congress rules are regarding structural changes, but hopefully they allow the current format, for better or worse, to settle and play out over a few seasons before making further adjustments.

Anyway, back to the football and that sense of jeopardy.

I might be a week ahead of myself, but it’s hard not to look at the four knockout games next weekend and think that all eight teams will be throwing the kitchen sink at them. For four of those counties, defeat means it will be the latter end of January before they’re seen in competitive action again. That’s nearly seven months away.

With my red-tinted glasses firmly on, the standout tie of the round is Derry versus Meath. Two teams who probably envisaged reaching their respective provincial finals but fell short. Two teams who haven’t quite reached the level they are capable of, and one of those journeys will end next weekend.

For Derry, there were 50 minutes against Monaghan that showed where they can be. However, given the new rules (and how long before we can stop calling them new?) and Monaghan’s ability to kick two-pointers, they were reeled back in. Then, in the Athletic Grounds last weekend, it always felt as though Armagh had enough in reserve to keep Derry at arm’s length.

For Meath, following promotion, they will be hugely disappointed with how they let a 10-point lead slip against Cork. Even after Cork went down to 14 men for more than 20 minutes, Meath still couldn’t close the game out. That came on the back of their shock defeat to Westmeath, so it’s easy to see that, despite promotion, their season hasn’t followed the trajectory they had hoped for.

I’m banking on home advantage giving Derry a lift. If they can reproduce the level they showed against Monaghan for a longer period, I expect them to earn themselves another week and a meeting with one of the losers from the 2A side of the draw.

While we’re not privy to what goes on inside the four walls of a county dressing room, we can only assume that promotion, an Ulster final appearance and an All-Ireland quarter-final were among Derry’s goals for the season. They remain very much in the hunt to achieve the latter, but the next fortnight will tell the tale.

While trying not to be too dismissive of either Cavan or Kildare, it would be considered a significant scalp for either county to win their respective games against Dublin and Kerry. While neither favourite is exactly purring at the minute, both would still be expected to come through.

Dublin probably have the trickier assignment, partly due to their own patchy form. Going from beating Louth by 10 points to losing to them by three points just five weeks later – a 13-point swing – highlights a serious level of inconsistency. On paper, the Dublin team that lined out against Louth last weekend was arguably stronger than the one that started the Leinster semi-final, but they can’t keep expecting the old guard to go back to the well time and again to rescue them. Cavan might just sense a little blood.

If someone had told Cavan before their game against Westmeath that they would be level heading into the final five minutes with possession on three occasions to launch attacks, they would have snapped your hand off. Yet they were still fortunate to force extra time. Then, having led by six points at half-time in extra time and still failing to close the game out, they’ll take both encouragement and disappointment from the experience. There is no better way to bounce back than with a home tie against Dublin.

The final knockout game sees Monaghan take on Roscommon and, I’ll confess, I haven’t a clue how it will go – and good luck to anyone who thinks they do. It feels every bit a 50-50 contest, with both teams having enjoyed reasonably strong seasons.

For Monaghan, they probably can’t continue allowing teams to build sizeable leads before eventually clicking into gear. At some point, that habit will catch up with them. For Roscommon, while the saying goes that you’re only as good as your last game, they’ve had a very positive season despite their defeat to Tyrone. They were in a position to win that game and will be disappointed not to have seen it out. Because of that, I expect a response from them.

Monaghan beware.