Declan McCoy: Whatever way the wind blows…

The longer I’m in the game, the more ambiguous the subject of taking — or not taking — the breeze has become.

One of the main reasons for this is that anecdotal evidence is really the only source of information we have.

There is no definitive statistic pointing to the success rate of teams that take the wind in the first half versus those that go against it. What is abundantly clear, however, is that the introduction of the ‘two-pointer’ and the new kick-out rules have made this conundrum even more pronounced.

I’ll attempt to outline some of the factors that should be considered when deciding whether to go with the wind or against it, and let you make up your own mind.

Firstly, you have to win the toss — otherwise the decision is out of your hands. This is perhaps not a bad thing. If things go wrong, at least it wasn’t your call.

For instance, Clan na Gael won the toss against Crossmaglen two weeks ago and decided to go against the breeze. The logic was probably that they had two two-point kickers who could see out the game with the breeze in the second half. As it transpired, Crossmaglen ate them alive with their long-range shooting and the game was effectively over after 10 minutes.

In last year’s Cavan Championship, with Cavan Gaels, we lost the toss and the opposition chose to go against the wind in the first half. We built up a 10-point lead by half-time, which ultimately saw us home.

In the 2024 Louth Senior Championship final, with Naomh Máirtín, we won the toss and decided to go against the wind. It was the day of the famous storm and, at half-time, we were 1-0 to 0-1 ahead. It looked like an inspired decision, but we went on to lose the match 2-2 to 0-4 — the joint-lowest-scoring Louth Senior County Final in 90 years. This is probably an extreme example given the ferocity of the storm.

Another consideration is the tacit understanding that exists around timekeeping in club football. Unless there is a serious injury, referees generally play around two minutes of injury time in the first half and four to six minutes in the second. That could equate to an extra four minutes with the breeze in the second half.

With the new rules, those extra minutes could conceivably be worth eight points. If you then consider that many games take 10 minutes to ‘settle down’, you could potentially have 16 minutes of the game played with the breeze in your favour. Of course, in the Crossmaglen example, the game was over after 10 minutes because they settled so quickly.

You must also assess where you stand in the overall psychology of the game. Are you the underdog?

If I feel I’m the underdog, the last thing I want to do is give the favourites a breeze to build up a huge lead by half-time. If you flip it and go in with a lead, that can inspire confidence and allow you to manage the game more efficiently.

However, if you take the breeze and fail to make use of it, your backs are firmly to the wall.

Two-point threat

The final consideration is the profile of your players. Have you got players who are not particularly mobile but are a genuine two-point threat? In that scenario, it would be some weapon to bring them on in the second half with the breeze.

Here’s the kicker, though – pun intended.

Your team is named before the toss to establish who has the wind. If you have the breeze and your two-point threats are on the bench, what do you do?

I faced this situation in the league this year. After five minutes, I replaced a defender with a forward. There was a massive wind behind us and, rather than have a defender standing in space, we decided to get another shooter up front.

I believe we’ll see more of these tactical substitutions in the future. They’re not ideal, as they effectively waste a substitution, but you have to squeeze every drop out of a breeze in the modern game.

Having read this, I’m sure you are none the wiser on the merits of taking – or not taking – the breeze.

If it helps, I think the answer is: it depends.

On a personal note, I bowed out of the Cavan Senior Championship last weekend when we lost to Kingscourt in the quarter-final. Thankfully, there was little breeze.

I have also stepped down as manager of Cavan Gaels and would like to thank the players, the club and everyone associated with the Gaels for all the kindness they showed me over the past two seasons.

They are a wonderful club, and I wish them the very best for the years ahead.