Joe Brolly: Football’s big two

WHO can win the All-Ireland? Not Derry. We just solo run and handpass. The boys are still Rory Gallagher’s team still playing the old rules. Ciarán Meenagh, our third Tyrone manager in a row, was Rory’s assistant and is therefore acceptable to the group in a way that Mickey Harte and Paddy Tally never were. But he is not Rory Gallagher, merely Rory’s assistant without Rory. As a result, Derry are treading water, unable to get out of Division Two. Treading water means going backwards.

Not Cork, who solo run and handpass and run around like Forest Gump and kick shots up into the air when it comes to the crunch and who are constantly lying on the ground after big games holding their heads in their hands, exhausted after covering 15 kilometres a man, wondering what went wrong. They are not the only ones. The biggest GAA county in the country has a psychological problem that can be seen from space. This is exemplified by their hurlers, a brilliantly talented group who fall apart when they hear any loud noise. Apparently they are electrifying at training unless the coach forgets himself and shouts.

Not Meath, who are the best of the second rankers and progressing very steadily, playing very attractive, manly (Colm O’Rourke’s word) football and who, because they are skilled at kicking long, are taking full advantage of the new rules. They need to win a Leinster to establish a bridgehead. It will be interesting to see them in two to three years time.

Not Galway, who have an attacking problem. Their courage and refusal to give in are exemplary, summed up by their extraordinary fight back against Kerry in the league. They have two-thirds of a team. They are however missing the most important bit and without that bit – as Mayo proved in their decade of sorrowful mysteries – Sam cannot be won.

Not Tyrone, who are defiant and passionate but who have not adapted to the new game, as they showed against Armagh last weekend. At least their manager is from Tyrone, even if he has not been able to make the transition from formulaic blanket defensive football to football. Darragh Canavan would need to be able to work miracles, but unlike his father, he is not God.

Not Roscommon – great forwards, no defence.

Not the Mayo Old Boys Association. Their coach is likeable and energetic but these are only a few of the necessary background qualities. Against Donegal and Kerry, they were decapitated in a way that is profoundly damaging to morale. Like Dublin before Gilroy arrived and established a ruthless, clear sighted regime based on performance, where the old failures were ditched, Mayo continue to be an attractive but superficial team. An expert punter friend of mine has a motto. Never back for or against Mayo. Until they find a Jimmy McGuinness or a Pat Gilroy, they are doomed to play boom and bust football. The Mayo papers this week have been most enthusiastic about their win over London at the weekend. Enough said.

Not Armagh. They are competing for third or fourth place with Galway. They were buoyed along for the first half of last year by their surprise All-Ireland. But when Kerry woke up, their limitations in skill and forward power (Oising Conaty aside) were revealed, just as Tyrone revealed them at the weekend. They have adapted surprisingly well to the new rules, but they will not be able to close the gap. As Floyd Mayweather used to say when he was predicting an easy win against his next opponent, “Skills pay the bills.”

So, we are left with Donegal and Kerry. Jimmy, the game’s leading scientist, has figured out Kerry. They spent the first three months of the year rehearsing a new game plan with the necessary tactical refinements to neutralise Kerry’s kick outs (tick), David Clifford (tick) and their defensive system (tick). With Jimmy, like elite coaches around the world, the only thing that matters is performance. The team’s ethos is to control what can be controlled. So, the weather, the opposition etc are not relevant. In essence, the best teams play against themselves.

So, for example, when Jim Gavin was managing Dublin, their motivation was to hit their own performance targets. The score and the outcome were not things they could control, so they were not relevant. This is why those Dubs played the same way whether they were five points behind or 20 points ahead. In the same way, when this Donegal team are seven points behind (as they were against Monaghan at half time in the All-Ireland quarter final last year) or eight points up (as they were against Kerry at halftime a fortnight ago), they continue to concentrate solely on performance.

They do not dwell on emotions like worry or frustration. They do not say to themselves, “Oh Jesus we need to do something here” or “We are nearly home, we just need to hold on for the next five minutes.” These are entirely negative and destructive thoughts that lead to panic and loss of concentration, as we saw with those potentially great Mayo teams. Instead, they say, “Next ball” and continue to operate the game plan. So, against Monaghan in that quarter final, they came from seven behind to win by six. Against Kerry, their eight point lead at half time became 21 points by the 55th minute.

As Roger Federer is fond of saying, the reason he won so many crucial points is that he was able to concentrate solely on that point, regardless of what had gone before. “While my opponents were thinking, ‘I’m about to beat Roger Federer” I was concentrating on my position, my grip and the next ball.”

Kerry are the second of the two contenders. I do not think Paudie Clifford would have made any difference a fortnight ago. I do however think that the return of Shane Ryan would make a big difference. As it is, their kick outs are poor and where roughly 50 per cent of their attacks come from the kick outs, this is not going to be good enough to beat Donegal. In the league final, their kick outs were predictable (mostly going to the right half forward spot) and without variation. There was little or no movement by the defenders looking for short kick outs, which forced the kicks long and which formed the basis for Donegal’s victory. Donegal going 21 points ahead cannot be glossed over by talk of it only being the league. As I wrote in my preview of the final, it was a dress rehearsal for the All-Ireland final with both teams looking for a critical psychological edge.

If it was anyone other than Kerry, I would say Donegal will definitely go on to win the All-Ireland. However, there is a tradition in Kerry of finals not being something to worry about, instead to be embraced, a tradition that only exists there. It is an inheritance that rests easily with each new generation.

It removes the trauma and fear of a final. It allows them to perform. I think back to 2014, when Jimmy’s brilliantly planned and executed ambush of Dublin in the semi-final left them hot favourites against Kerry in the final. Kerry stunned Jimmy by mirroring his blanket defence.

The Donegal players, endlessly rehearsed as they are, could not compute what they were seeing and in the end, they cracked, ‘Star’ scoring the winning goal and asking me what I thought of it, a question I will never answer.