GERARD O’KANE: Fourth time’s the charm?

THERE is an old saying, ‘third time’s the charm’, commonly used to suggest that after three attempts, success is more likely on the next go. Well, you would imagine many in Armagh will be hoping there is such a thing as a ‘fourth time’s the charm.’

Heading for their fourth Ulster final in a row is no mean feat, especially having lost the previous three – two on penalties and the other by a single point after extra time.

No matter who came through on the other side of the draw, Armagh were always going to be favourites, but after disposing of Down by 28 points, it was a clear signal of intent following a lacklustre second half against Fermanagh.

Coincidentally, the last four Ulster finals have all gone to extra time, but I just don’t see that happening this time. Armagh have shown too much consistency all year to let this one slip.

I would probably say that regardless of the opposition – even if it had been Derry in the final. As impressive as Armagh were against Down, to win by 28 points is some statement.

Given their recent experiences, Armagh will not be taking this lightly. Winning the All-Ireland in 2024 was the Holy Grail at the time, but within Armagh circles there remains a strong awareness of their last Ulster title coming in 2008. Back then, Ulster titles were almost routine, with a generation of players collecting three, four, even five medals. It was an annual expectation.

As we all know, in Ulster football, the provincial title remains a prized possession regardless of what follows.

Armagh will throw everything at this game on Sunday and will leave nothing in reserve for the All-Ireland series.

From Monaghan’s perspective, this is their first home Ulster final in Clones since 2015, a reminder of how long it feels since that group of players won two titles in three years.

They also reached a Croke Park final in 2021 against Tyrone during the Covid era, but simply getting back to Clones is a significant achievement in itself.

The county is football-mad and will be out in their thousands to support the team.

On the pitch, some may underestimate Monaghan given their league form, but that should be tempered by the fact that Scotstown went on a long club run into January and player unavailability disrupted their season. They have only had a settled hand to pick from in recent weeks.

While I have tipped Armagh, that is not to underestimate Monaghan. As an avid Derry follower, I am well aware of what Monaghan can bring to the table.

They comfortably saw off Cavan in the first round and then showed real resilience in clawing their way back against Derry in the semi-final. That fight and determination should not be mistaken for a lack of quality – this is a team capable of playing in multiple ways.

You only have to look at the eight two-pointers they scored against Derry.

All were high-quality efforts at a time when they were chasing the game – not efforts taken in comfort or with the game already won.

Their U20 side also reached an Ulster final this year and impressed along the way, so this is not a team overly reliant on four or five individuals.

They have strength across the field, but I just think Armagh will have too much. I don’t expect the 12-point win Armagh recorded in January, but I’ll go with Armagh by six.

Two sets of keen observers for this one will be the Derry and Mayo managers.

With games against Armagh and Monaghan coming in two weeks’ time, it offers both a chance to see their opponents in the flesh in a high-octane environment. While watching and planning is one thing, putting those plans into action is another.

Both Derry and Mayo will be disappointed with how their provincial campaigns unfolded – Derry perhaps more so given how their semi-final played out – but the new format gives all of these teams another opportunity. A few weeks away from the spotlight may ultimately do them no harm. Only time will tell.